A Delicate Balance: Growth and Climate Resilience, Safeguarding Island Paradise

Zanzibar, with its stunning beaches, rich history, and vibrant culture, has long been a magnet for tourists. Known for its crystal-clear turquoise waters, the islands offer exceptional snorkeling and diving opportunities, alongside the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Stone Town. This historic area, with its narrow streets and intriguing architecture, reflects the island’s diverse cultural influences. 

For decades, Zanzibar’s tourism sector has been thriving, driven by the warm hospitality of its people, delectable local cuisine, and a variety of accommodation options catering to different budgets and preferences. In 2022, tourism contributed a remarkable 46.3% to Zanzibar’s GDP, attracting over 548,503 visitors from more than 30 countries.

Beyond its substantial economic contribution, tourism is a powerful engine for job creation in both formal and informal sectors. The industry has overtaken agriculture as the leading contributor to Zanzibar’s economic growth, generating significant employment opportunities. Between 2014 and 2021, there was a notable shift of people from low-productivity agriculture to service jobs, especially among women, reflecting a 10% point increase.

According to the Zanzibar Tourism Satellite Account (2022), coastal-based tourism directly employs an estimated 15,000 individuals and supports an additional 60,000 jobs indirectly. The sector’s impact ripples through the economy, creating jobs in various industries and attracting foreign currency, contributing an estimated USD 100 million in 2019.

The Looming Threat: Climate Change

While the growth trajectory of Zanzibar’s tourism industry appears promising, climate change poses a significant threat. Tourists’ destination choices are heavily influenced by climatic conditions, and climate change hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, and cyclones could severely disrupt Zanzibar’s tourism appeal.

The vulnerability of coastal areas underscores the risks to the tourism sector. Climate change events can cause substantial damage to infrastructure, eroding the invested capital and eliminating many direct, indirect, and induced jobs. The existing economic contribution of tourism to national income would undoubtedly decline.

Extreme weather events like hurricanes, floods, and droughts are becoming more frequent, damaging infrastructure and deterring tourists. Rising sea levels threaten coastal tourism destinations by causing beach erosion and submerging infrastructure and hotels. 

With most tourist accommodations located at sea level, the attractiveness of these destinations diminishes, directly impacting livelihoods. Changes in seasonality due to climate change also disrupt the traditional tourism calendar, affecting businesses that rely on seasonal visitor fluctuations.

Economic Consequences and Projections

The economic implications of climate change on Zanzibar’s tourism industry extend beyond infrastructure damage. Coastal tourism, a crucial income source, faces extreme risks. These hazards negatively impact invested capital, national income, and foreign currency earnings, which are vital for Zanzibar’s import-dependent economy.

The Zanzibar Tourism Satellite Account estimates that by 2022, Zanzibar could lose about USD 11 million, with total domestic revenue losses amounting to USD 40 million by 2030 due to climate vulnerability. A decline in tourist arrivals would lead to reduced disposable income for employees and owners of small and medium-sized businesses, which represent over 70% of the sector. 

This downturn would cascade, severely impacting suppliers and subcontractors associated with tourist operators, hotels, and restaurants. The loss of income for those employed in tourism and related sectors would ultimately lead to lower domestic demand, disproportionately affecting informal workers who have limited savings and alternative income sources.

A Holistic Approach to Resilience

All stakeholders recognize the tourism sector’s vulnerability to climate change. To mitigate its effects, address challenges and ensure long-term sustainability on the tourism sector, Zanzibar needs a holistic approach that involves collaboration between the government, private sectors, and local communities.

These efforts should focus in investing in sustainable tourism practices and infrastructure that will enable Zanzibar to protect its natural resources, maintain its attractiveness as a tourist destination, and secure the future of its tourism industry and economic sustainability. Key emphasis include:

Promoting Coastal Conservation

The government and business community must work together to conserve coastal areas and ecosystems. Initiatives such as beach clean-ups, sustainable waste management practices, and the establishment of marine protected areas are crucial.

Enforcing Sustainable Development Regulations

Strengthening the enforcement of planning permits and environmental legislation ensures that development projects in coastal areas are sustainable, preserving the natural beauty and biodiversity of Zanzibar’s coastal ecosystems for future generations.

Increasing Funding for Climate Adaptation

Collaboration between the Zanzibar government, the business community, and development partners is essential to increase funding for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector. Investing in adaptation measures will help protect Zanzibar’s economy and environment.

Promoting Sustainable Tourism Practices

Investing in infrastructure that can withstand the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events, is crucial. By adopting sustainable tourism practices, Zanzibar can protect its natural resources and continue to attract tourists for years to come.